Crimean referendum from a safe chair of a coffeehouse

95,5% of voters expressed their wish that Crimea joins Russia. Regardless of the odd facts, that there's no 95,5% of Crimean citizens of Russian origin supporting that idea and that the referendum in fact allowed only for two answers "join" or "be independent and join later", this gives a fat food for thought.

First, there is pristine clear international law and Ukrainian law, which indicate an undisputable trespass. But we all know that international law is ridiculous as there is no authority to enforce it.

Second, this is clearly a dangerous precedent. Normally, a central Ukrainian authority would intervene to enforce its law or at least make the referendum fair. This time due to the presence of professional soldiers of "unclear" origin and Russian army in Crimea and at Ukrainian border, authorities could only give up control to avoid another bloody conflict with a strong rival. The only power that could bring in some resolution were the NATO world military forces with an official Kyiv invitation or another EuroKyivAmerican proclamation of determination to protect the law. Since that did not happen, Kremlin can do it again - e.g. for any area in Ukraine, where there is safely more than 55% of Ukrainians of Russian origin. A little memento of how Europe practiced appeacement with Hitler Germany of 1930ies and what happened in Sudet Czechoslovakia.

Third, Crimea had a specific setup: Vast majority of its population has Russian origin (again - similar like Sudet land). Now this makes the situation a bit different from other separationist stories in e.g. Europe, where there is usually no big brother the rebelling majority could join and would want to join. This gives the struggle at Crimea a different flavour and unfortunately for Ukraine and international law some justification.

This counterarguments have had different weight in time. Two weeks ago, if there had been some action on European side, it might have justified first and second point of view. Now after the referendum, regardless of the unfair setup and conditions, there's nothing much to be done apart from drawing a thick black line between EU and Russia, from which nobody will benefit. Certainly it will not harm Putin's comforts, it will impact the ordinary people most of all.

So what does it indicate in fact? Do sanctions mean, that Europe wants to hunger Russians and make them go against Putin in next democratic elections? That would mean another international interference into sovereign country's politics (regardless of the fact, it will most probably not work - it will only make ordinary Russians dislike the EU and the US). Yes, dear Europe, face the fact Kremlin holds the Russians and European employees of companies making business in Russia as a hostage.

To conclude, now it's too late to show the teeth. And we should all hope, there is no next time, requiring us to do so earlier, as it was necessary in the Crimea conflict. Unfortunately, by not acting, we opened a pandora box.