You all know I do not exactly love Russia as a geopolitic player (winters are cold back in Europe), but I as well do not like the misleading media picture that has been created about it in Europe. Russia suffered from that in the past.
I feel the same is happening now about Ukraine. Media do not give any analysis or own interpretation - they just quote politicians, their tweets and so on - without explaining on the background. Now this might allow politicians to drive the reality according to their own needs. E.g. if Putin says something, which is OBVIOUSLY a lie in a certain context, media just publish it, without any comment and so it becomes true. And Ukraine suffers.
Nevertheless, it seems that Russia holds all the aces this time.
First, they have real compact and capable to use army. What is on the other side? Couple of geopolitically unimportant countries, that (Putin knows) are unable to gain synergies acting like one.
Second, only if EU investors take back their investments in Russia, they will suffer losses and this will not benefit the fragile economic balance in the EU. Moreover, if Russia returns sanctions, more investments might be harmed. And Russia has been a clear growth story till now...
Third, Russia has the resources and EU has no replacement for them.
Fourth, in big media it seems that the separationist activity comes from Crymean people (with some loud doubts) and Russia only actively "waits" (so what can world effectively do, when there is yes to Russia on Sunday? Ignore the so called will of Crymean people?).
I am afraid, this is finally "strong Russia" vs. "weak Ukraine" conflict - EU will try not to lose face and continue sharp discussions (while Russia meanwhile supports them with a real army), maybe introduce some sanctions, but in the background, all western leaders hope that the big business will be running untouched (only a foolish leader would wish otherwise). Maybe Poland is serious, but too weak alone. We might be afraid in CZ what comes tommorow, but we have no army (and no "balls") to clanch arms on the other side of Ukraine border to scare Russia away. Besides that, many of our midsized companies invest into Russian markets since 2008 crisis and they will suffer losses, if Russia targets countersanctions well.
I am only asking - will Putin worry, if Russia suffers economically as well? I think he won't, as in Russia this will be seen as another "world vs. Russia" skirmish and this will probably weld people closer together with their strong leader.
Black scenarios only? I am as well only a coffee house discussionist. Let us now all wish that Russian troops won't come to protect their brothers, if something goes wild in the eastern Ukraine. I might only volunteer then in a peace army, because drinking coffee in Prague or Myanmar and posting on facebook obviously does not work geopolitically. No doubt, in CZ majority is now against what Russia does, but we cannot do anything... Or we just do not do anything?
Regardless of all written above: People of Ukraine, keep my fingers crossed for you.
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